Well, as I stated in my last post, I felt fairly confident that we will be in the next batch of referrals – and now I feel even better after seeing the data on Rumor Queen’s website. As you know by now, our LID (log in date) is April 4th and she is predicting that the CCAA (China Center of Adoptive Affairs) will get through April 5th with the next batch of referrals – Woohoo!!!
The next big question is when??? Here is what Rumor Queen has to say about that –
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 37, 36, 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30, 32, 31, 52, and 51 day intervals.
The average is 36 days, and the median is 34 days. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 52.
But, if we look at the last six months then the average is 44 and the median is 43.
We’re told the 52 day interval was because no one was in the office to sign referrals, and the 51 day interval was because of the change in directors. It occurs to me that the SN list was put out December 1st, and that the referrals were signed and mailed on the 1st as well. I realize the “they’ve used up their quota for the fiscal year and have to wait until December to issue any more” thing is just rumor, but with both programs being held back until December 1st, it does make one wonder.
Why is the reason these batches were held back important? Because we’re trying to figure out if we can expect the next batch to arrive in 30 days or in 50 days. If the reasons for the 47, 52, and 51 day batches are no longer an issue, then perhaps we can go back to shorter intervals. But, if those long batches are due to something else (another way to slow IA, or a slowing because of H1N1, or some other reason entirely) then it’s possible the longer intervals are here to stay. As usual, only time will tell.
Our window is now huge: Based on the last twelve months, referrals should arrive sometime between Monday, December 21 and Friday, January 29.
Based on the last six months the window isn’t as big, but I’m going with the last twelve months because I think we also have to consider Chinese New Year at this point in time. I think we need to remember that there is a possibility the CCAA is going to start looking at a time frame between now and then so they can get referrals out just before they leave for their holiday. Spring Festival is February 14, and I believe the official holiday is going to fall from February 13 to 19. If they are going to mail a batch on or near February 12 (not a sure thing, but a fairly good probability) then we have 73 days between December 1 and February 12. Divide that by two and the next mailing would be somewhere around Wednesday, January 6 (to arrive the 7th or 8th). If we divide it by three we get 24 days, which would put the next mailing somewhere around Christmas Day. So, are we going to get 24 day intervals, 36 day intervals, or one huge 73 day interval? I think it depends on the reason for the previous delays. Three approximate 24 day intervals are quite possible, but based on previous months we should probably hope for two approximate 36day intervals.
And to be clear – those two 36 days could turn into (for example) a 30 day and a 43 day – they likely will not divide them equally.
Normally I give a “most likely” date, but I’m not sure we can do that this month. If they were holding off until December because of the whole fiscal-year-ceiling-thing then it’s possible we will see the next batch come at the end of December. But if we’re seeing these longer intervals as the new norm then we’re more likely looking at the end of January.
We know the CCAA employees prefer to get referrals out before their new year so they come back to clean desks, but with a new director in place we don’t know for sure that this is what will happen.
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