Referrals, Predictions, and Next Batch...

June referrals came on 6/19 and went through 3/20/06.

CCAA Status

Reviewed through:
June 30, 2007

Placed through:
March 20, 2006

Based on that, the predictions for the coming months are:





When will the next batch of referrals arrive?

That is a very good question and here is how Rumor Queen attempts to answer that...The last 12 referral batches arrived at 28, 35, 22, 27, 37, 36, 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30 days.

The average is 31 days. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 47. But, the 47 was hopefully an anomaly, meaning we should probably use 39 as the longest. (Though, with the current H1N1 rules still so undefined, it’s hard to say.)

That would mean the soonest we’d expect to see them would be Tuesday, July 7 and the latest would be Tuesday, July 28.

The most likely arrival date based on time between referrals would be Monday, July 20.

The most likely arrival date for those who believe they always arrive on the first of the month would be July 1. I’m not holding my breath on that one, though.

Of course, the July 20th date isn’t even as much of a “probably close” as I think it normally is. With the current pandemic stuff going on, things are even less predictable than normal.

These When posts are about managing expectations. If we expect them to arrive around July 20th then we’d probably start seeing early rumors as early as July 9th, and we’d see possibly accurate rumors the week of July 13th.