Projections...

Well, as I stated in my last post, I felt fairly confident that we will be in the next batch of referrals – and now I feel even better after seeing the data on Rumor Queen’s website. As you know by now, our LID (log in date) is April 4th and she is predicting that the CCAA (China Center of Adoptive Affairs) will get through April 5th with the next batch of referrals – Woohoo!!!



The next big question is when??? Here is what Rumor Queen has to say about that –
The last 12 referral batches arrived at 37, 36, 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30, 32, 31, 52, and 51 day intervals.

The average is 36 days, and the median is 34 days. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 52.

But, if we look at the last six months then the average is 44 and the median is 43.

We’re told the 52 day interval was because no one was in the office to sign referrals, and the 51 day interval was because of the change in directors. It occurs to me that the SN list was put out December 1st, and that the referrals were signed and mailed on the 1st as well. I realize the “they’ve used up their quota for the fiscal year and have to wait until December to issue any more” thing is just rumor, but with both programs being held back until December 1st, it does make one wonder.

Why is the reason these batches were held back important? Because we’re trying to figure out if we can expect the next batch to arrive in 30 days or in 50 days. If the reasons for the 47, 52, and 51 day batches are no longer an issue, then perhaps we can go back to shorter intervals. But, if those long batches are due to something else (another way to slow IA, or a slowing because of H1N1, or some other reason entirely) then it’s possible the longer intervals are here to stay. As usual, only time will tell.

Our window is now huge: Based on the last twelve months, referrals should arrive sometime between Monday, December 21 and Friday, January 29.

Based on the last six months the window isn’t as big, but I’m going with the last twelve months because I think we also have to consider Chinese New Year at this point in time. I think we need to remember that there is a possibility the CCAA is going to start looking at a time frame between now and then so they can get referrals out just before they leave for their holiday. Spring Festival is February 14, and I believe the official holiday is going to fall from February 13 to 19. If they are going to mail a batch on or near February 12 (not a sure thing, but a fairly good probability) then we have 73 days between December 1 and February 12. Divide that by two and the next mailing would be somewhere around Wednesday, January 6 (to arrive the 7th or 8th). If we divide it by three we get 24 days, which would put the next mailing somewhere around Christmas Day. So, are we going to get 24 day intervals, 36 day intervals, or one huge 73 day interval? I think it depends on the reason for the previous delays. Three approximate 24 day intervals are quite possible, but based on previous months we should probably hope for two approximate 36day intervals.

And to be clear – those two 36 days could turn into (for example) a 30 day and a 43 day – they likely will not divide them equally.

Normally I give a “most likely” date, but I’m not sure we can do that this month. If they were holding off until December because of the whole fiscal-year-ceiling-thing then it’s possible we will see the next batch come at the end of December. But if we’re seeing these longer intervals as the new norm then we’re more likely looking at the end of January.

We know the CCAA employees prefer to get referrals out before their new year so they come back to clean desks, but with a new director in place we don’t know for sure that this is what will happen.

An Update And….Are We Next????

China has now officially matched through March 31st 2006 – YEAH!!!

CCAA Status

Reviewed through:
February 29, 2008

Placed through:
March 31, 2006

Now, the big question is will they get through April 4th with the next batch? April 1st and 2nd are a Saturday and Sunday and they typically have minimal paperwork that is logged in on weekends. In fact, according to the polls on Rumor Queen, there are a total of 3 people logged in on those days (please keep in mind that this is only a snapshot of the adoptive community), but it provides a consistent analysis by which to estimate. April 3rd reflects 22 people and April 4th reflects 21 people. I honestly can not recall China only doing a one day batch of referrals so I do anticipate that they will get through April 4th with the next batch, but I say those words with the greatest amount of caution as nothing in this process has gone as expected.

We can anticipate the next batch to come sometime in the next 4 to 8 weeks. Until then, we will be keeping ourselves busy with the activities of the holiday season:) I have plenty of gifts to buy and wrap, cookies to bake, and decorating yet to do – especially in Jadyn’s room!

We will keep you all posted as we hear any news! Happy Holidays!!!

Another Update And The Next Prediction…

Well, the October batch of referrals began arriving on October 12th and they went through March 28, 2006. This batch of referrals covered 4 days worth of paperwork (the last batch of referrals went through March 24th). The month of March is nearing completion and then they will finally move into April. You will see by the estimates below that we should expect to receive Jadyn’s referral in December and travel will be 6-8 weeks after. I am trying to keep busy to let the time pass by - I have purchased just about everything we need for her bedroom except the paint, but I have the colors picked out. Now, I just need to find the time to paint. I think I will try to tackle that project Thanksgiving weekend. It will be nice to begin to move the items for her out of our closet as it has been filling up over the years and actually consumes quite a bit of space:) Hopefully, it won't be long now!

Wow…It Has Been Awhile!

I guess I should explain why I have been away from the computer for awhile. I recently left my position as Sr. Human Resources Consultant with Agnesian HealthCare after almost 10 years because I accepted a position as Associate Director – Human Resources with Moraine Park Technical College.

The change has been good for me; I felt like I needed to take on some new challenges and my new position is certainly bringing those my way. Although I love my new role, the transition has been a little difficult for me because I have high expectations for myself especially when it comes to my work, and not really knowing “what to do” has been hard. Jerry has been very supportive and reassuring, as has my new work group. However, for the past 10 years I have been accustomed to coming into the office and getting down to business and now I have had to look to others for direction. It is a humbling experience to start something new.

When I think of where I am today compared to where I was the first week it is definitely an improvement and I continue to look forward to the day when it will be second nature to me just as my former position was, but hopefully not so much that it becomes too easy.

Well…enough about me and on to the update on Jadyn. China has surprised us once again and basically skipped the September batch of referrals. The last batch of referrals was sent around 8/24/09 and we were expecting to see another batch around 9/21/09, but they have now gone on a holiday break and will not send referrals until they return. They are expected back to the office around October 9th and referrals could come any time after that. The August referrals went through March 24, 2006 and there have been rumors that March 29, 2006 will be included in the next batch and there have also been rumors that they will finish March 2006 altogether. I would be thrilled if either of these rumors ends up to be true because March 29th is the date with the largest amount of people logged in for the month of March and if they get through that the 30th and 31st do not have many people logged in at all; the 1st and 2nd of April are weekend dates and they log in minimal people on the weekends so that would allow them to move to April 3rd and 4th (our LID) pretty quickly.

We will most likely be included in the November batch, but as I type this I almost cringe to put it in writing because just when we think we can plan with some consideration we are taken back by China’s next move. If we are in the November batch, we will travel in early to mid January. That will make for a chilly visit to the Great Wall, but at this point I will just be happy to finally get there and hold my daughter after nearly 5 long years in this process! On a positive note, we recently completed our third set of fingerprints for the adoption and we received notification that they are good through December 2010 so that should be the last time we have to do that wonderful process!

The boys have started the school year off well and are getting excited as things draw closer. We are getting the final touches on Jadyn’s room and on building Justin’s room downstairs. It is hard to believe that the holidays are coming in the next two months! I will be sure to post an update with the next batch of referrals – until then we hope all is well with you and yours…

Adopting the Waiting Child...

This is a wonderful video clip that describes an option within the adoption path that may be the right path for some people to choose. Jerry and I were very frightened at first when we heard the words "special needs"; however, through much research and education we came to find that the needs many of these children have are manageable and/or correctable. Unfortunately, our agency does not have a special needs or waiting child program, so we continue to wait in line for the "non-special needs" referral that we originally sought.

If we do choose to adopt another child in the future you can be assured that that child will be one that is waiting on an agency list because we are no longer frightened of the many possible needs that we can meet.

TB Testing Procedures and the CDC...

The CDC is responsible for new TB testing procedures, and they are supposedly rolling them out to the various consulates around the world, with the intent to make sure children with active TB do not come into the U.S. They recently implemented these guidelines in Ethiopia in March of this year; they are now active in all China adoptions, as well.

Our understanding of this is:

If the skin test is negative then you get the child’s visa and go home. If it shows positive then a chest x-ray must be done.

If the chest x-ray is clear then you get the child’s visa and go home. If it is not clear then a “sputum test” is done, and that culture can take 8 weeks to show or not show TB.

If the culture does not show TB then you get the child’s visa and go home. If it shows TB then the child has to stay in country to be medicated. The embassy site says six months, but it could be 9 months to a year of medication; perhaps they figure the child isn’t contagious anymore at 6 months? We don’t know. We just know that they say six months.

What does this mean for families? Even if the skin test shows positive then the x-ray probably won’t delay travel as long as the x-ray is clear.

But, if the x-ray shows something then we’re stuck in country another two months. And, if the culture shows TB then our child (and, we're assuming, at least one parent) must remain in country for another six months - for a total of 8 months after adoption.

What percentage of babies will have active TB? A very very small percentage, but it is possible as China is known for having a high concentration of TB cases.

It appears that the CDC is just trying to keep children who are infectious from coming into the country, not children with latent TB. They estimate that less than 10 children a year will require the six month stay in Ethiopia.

It also appears that some agencies have started having the children in Ethiopia tested before the family travels. That way the family doesn’t get into a situation where they can’t bring their child home for 2 to 8 months. We do not know if that option is possible in China.

Realistically speaking, this is yet another stressor in an already stressful situation, but the odds are that most families will only make it to the skin test or the x-ray stage and will not have to stay for the culture or the medication phases.

Unfortunately, one family has now realized the nightmare described above - the link to their blog is below:

http://jayscruggs.livejournal.com/

There is a petition which one can sign to make their voice heard to the CDC that the implementation of these instructions is not in the best interest of these vulnerable children and should not be implemented for this population for many reasons. The link is below:

http://www.gopetition.com/petitions/build-families-not-barriers.html

Please feel free to add your name to this list so that more families do not suffer through senseless restrictions during an already stressful time.

Referrals and Predictions for Next Batch...

July referrals came on 7/21 and went through 3/22/06. Only a dismal two-day batch...bummer!

CCAA Status

Reviewed through:
August 31, 2007

Placed through:
March 22, 2006

Based on that, the predictions for the coming months are:





The next batch of referrals will probably arrive the week of August 17th and hopefully it will be more than two days, but I'm not holding my breath since the next two days are quite large relative to LID's. We are still very hopeful that we will see our daughter's sweet face in the next 2-3 months with travel before the end of the year. We are coming due for our third round of fingerprinting which is so much fun, but it has to be done. Jerry, Justin, and I will make that wonderful trip to downtown Milwaukee to get that completed because we have to make sure that our prints are still the same...don't you know:)

Referrals, Predictions, and Next Batch...

June referrals came on 6/19 and went through 3/20/06.

CCAA Status

Reviewed through:
June 30, 2007

Placed through:
March 20, 2006

Based on that, the predictions for the coming months are:





When will the next batch of referrals arrive?

That is a very good question and here is how Rumor Queen attempts to answer that...The last 12 referral batches arrived at 28, 35, 22, 27, 37, 36, 18, 24, 39, 32, 47, 30 days.

The average is 31 days. The shortest interval is 18 days and the longest is 47. But, the 47 was hopefully an anomaly, meaning we should probably use 39 as the longest. (Though, with the current H1N1 rules still so undefined, it’s hard to say.)

That would mean the soonest we’d expect to see them would be Tuesday, July 7 and the latest would be Tuesday, July 28.

The most likely arrival date based on time between referrals would be Monday, July 20.

The most likely arrival date for those who believe they always arrive on the first of the month would be July 1. I’m not holding my breath on that one, though.

Of course, the July 20th date isn’t even as much of a “probably close” as I think it normally is. With the current pandemic stuff going on, things are even less predictable than normal.

These When posts are about managing expectations. If we expect them to arrive around July 20th then we’d probably start seeing early rumors as early as July 9th, and we’d see possibly accurate rumors the week of July 13th.

Happy Father's Day...

I'd like to wish my husband a Happy Father's Day! He truly is a wonderful dad to our boys and our daughter will be one lucky little girl to have him as a daddy!!! I love you, honey!

This day has also now become one of reflection for me and it goes without saying, there is a twinge of hurt wishing I could pick up that phone, just one more time...to say "hi Dad" and hear his casual and easy, "hey honey" or "hi daughter #2" in reply.

Today, I wish I could hear his voice as I remind him how much I love him and wish him a Happy Father’s Day. I hope he hears me, I hope his presence in my heart is as real as it was when he was with me in life. Something deep inside tells me there is some truth in that.

Happy Father's Day, Dad.

I love you. :)

One Year Without My Dad...

Today is the one year mark of my Dad's death. It has been a difficult year for our entire family; we have all missed him so much. He was such an important influence in my life growing up and I have really felt his absence at times.

My sister and I drove up by my Mom and we spent time together as a family with my brother and his family. It was a nice day and in the afternoon we met at the cemetary to say a prayer and release some balloons with personal notes we had all written. When they went up into the sky they actually formed a cross! We like to think that was Dad's way of saying that he knew we were there. Then we went out to dinner and celebrated his life with stories and memories. He left a wonderful mark on this world in the family he created with my Mom and the many lives he touched through his friendships; we are all better people for knowing him!

Here is my Dad during the time he served in the Navy; I'm very proud of him!


Here is a picture of my Dad and me on my wedding day - I love this picture!


This is a picture of my Dad and our oldest son, Justin, just after he was born. He was his first grandchild - that is one proud Grandpa!!!


This is my Dad and me at Christmas when I was 5 months pregnant with my 4th child; we were comparing belly sizes:) He gave me a run for my money!


Here is one of my favorite pictures of my Mom and Dad.


Here is my Dad with my oldest son, Justin. They loved hunting together; he taught Justin everything he knows!


Here is a picture of the last time that I saw my Dad; it was my son Justin's graduation - this was the day before he died.

Finally, the Referrals and Rumor Queen Projections...

The CCAA released referrals on May 21, 2009 and they went through March 14, 2006. This was actually better than expected since March 14 was such a large day (for LID's) based on the poll numbers. However, since the referrals were delayed the question remains as to whether or not June referrals will be on track to be released in the next two weeks or if we will have to wait another month for them to come out. Based on the history from the SARS pandemic, referrals should get back on track and another batch should be released in another two weeks or so.

And here are Rumor Queen's projections.....Remember, our LID is 4/4/06, so based on these projections we could see our referral in July/Aug if the future batches follow the same size as the batches which had been referred in the summer 2007. However, that is most likely not going to happen. We are still hopefull for an early fall referral (September/October).

And to end this with her standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

Our Baby Turned 7 Today...

Today, our youngest son Colin turned 7 years old. It is hard to believe that he is growing up so quickly. We had a birthday party with his friends from school and a family friend this past Saturday; the theme was Baseball. It was a fun day - there were about 10 girls and boys and we played games, ate hamburgers and hot dogs for lunch, did a craft, had cake and ice cream, and had a pinata. The kids had the most fun with the pinata! He received some very nice gifts and it turned out to be a great day!



Today, he brought monkey face cupcakes to school for his birthday treat. Last night he helped me make them which was fun for both of us. Unfortunately, I could not find the black gel that I bought last week so I had to improvise with some brown frosting for the nose and yellow and blue dots for the eyes. This made them take a little longer to decorate, but his classmates really liked them which is all that matters:)

Just In Case You Ever Feel The Tug...

Bad News and Possible Delays...

Below are postings from the Rumor Queen website - we hope to know more after the long holiday weekend (Chinese Holiday).

Bad News
April 29th, 2009

A few European agencies are reporting they have news that the CCAA is not sending referrals at this time due to the swine flu outbreak. They may revisit things in 20-30 days to see if the swine flu cases have leveled off.

CCAA Notice
April 30th, 2009

The CCAA has posted a notice on their site. It can be found here.

As usual, it’s a contradiction.

In one place it says, “Adoption agencies are required to counsel the adoptive parents who have received Notice of Coming to China for Adoption to postpone their trip to China for the registration procedure. “.

But then later it says that when you come you should follow “the arrangement of local registration authorities and cooperate during the entrustment of child for the harmony period and the adoption registration process“.

And then it says, “If adoptive parents feel unwell during their stay in China for the registration procedure, they shall go to the hospital for medical checkup in time and report to CCAA about relevant situation“.

So, I think they are saying, “We’d rather you didn’t come, and if you want to wait that’s fine, we’re extending the TA’s expiration by two months so feel free to wait. But, if you do decide to come anyway, follow safety instructions and by all means get to a doctor if you feel sick.”

Too Cute!

I received an email from a friend with this video clip and I think I could watch it all day!

Enjoy!


2 Year Old Sings the Lords Prayer - The funniest videos clips are here

A Visit from the Tooth Fairy...

Our youngest son, Colin, lost his fourth tooth yesterday and was so excited to receive a visit from the Tooth Fairy! I told him that I recently saw a picture of the Tooth Fairy's home :) I saw the pictures posted by another adoptive mom and thought that it was so cute!

Colin asked me how the tooth fairy could fit in there; he was referring to the Tooth Fairy A.K.A. "Molinator" from the Santa Clause movies - too cute!

Here are some pictures of the Tooth Fairy's home:

A close up view...

There is a "TF" insignia above the door -

Looking through the door one can see some neat details; A bag for "TEETH", coins, toothpaste & brush,tooth-pattern wallpaper...

Looking left...

Looking right...

3 Year LID Anniversary!!!

I saw this posted on someone else's blog and laughed so hard because I truly understood every line! I had to post it on my blog in hopes of providing a little more understanding to my friends and family who are following us on this journey -

You Might Be Adopting From China If...

~You know that I-600 & I-171 aren't highways...

~You've been expecting a baby for over 3 years...

~You understand that it's 2006 in some parts of the world...

~You've "paid for" 3 citizenships, but never brought anyone into the U.S...

~You know that waiting for China has nothing to do with Dillards or dishes...

~Your homestudy is followed by a number (i.e. #3 or #4)...

~You never know how many days next month will have...

~You know that babies come in batches...

~You've been fingerprinted three times, but never committed a crime...

~You automatically assume everyone who is expecting is having a girl...

~You own new clothing in 3 little sizes for all 4 seasons (because you don't know when or how big)...

~You look twice when you see a lady bug...

~You're more interested in what will happen in March 2006 than in March 2009...

~You know people who understand when you talk about 2 day months & 5 day months...

~Your due date hasn't changed by days, but by years...

~You know who the Rumor Queen is ... AND ... you don't know who she is...

~You know that forecast doesn't have anything to do with the weather...

~You've waited so long, they re-checked your fingerprints to see if they changed...

~Trying to understand why they're printing you again, you study your own fingerprints and wonder if fingerprints grow wrinkles...

~When you speak of "that time of month" you're talking about CCAA updates & referrals...

And finally...You might be adopting from China if you love someone you've never met with all your heart!

Spring is in the air...

It's officially the first day of spring and it feels good to think of the seasons changing and warmer weather coming. It has been a long winter with approximately 82 inches of snow to date. The boys are getting anxious for school to end and summer vacation to start. I am completing the last two classes of my bachelor's degree and am looking forward to graduation on May 16th. I started taking classes about 14 years ago, but stopped about 2 years into the program because we moved and I started a new job. I did not return to school until 2006; I figured I wasn't getting any younger and it was a good way to pass the time while we waited for our referral. I also wanted my boys to see that continuing education is very important. It has not been easy carrying 12 credits a semester while working full time, but it has been very rewarding. My only regret is that I did not finish in time for my Dad to watch me receive my diploma. I'm very happy that my Mom will be there and I know my Dad will be watching me from Heaven above.

Projections...Continued...

Hello,

A couple of months have passed since our last post. We have been busy shoveling out of this winter and are anxiously awaiting spring!

Recently, projections were posted on the Rumor Queen site and our LID (log in date) actually appeared within the projections! It is a wonderful feeling to think that this may actually be our year!

Latest RQ Predictions...

And here are her projections.....Remember, our LID is 4/4/06, so based on these projections we could see our referral in Apr/May if the future batches follow the same size as the batches which had been referred in the summer 2007. However, that is most likely not going to happen. We are still hopefull for a late summer/early fall referral (August to October).

And to end this with her standard disclaimer: As always, projections are based on the CCAA continuing to do what they have been doing. There is nothing to say they will follow their recent behavior. They could choose to do a lot less, or a lot more.

January 1, 2009 Is This the Year???

Happy New Year!!!

It has been a long time since I last posted to our blog; primarily because the wait had become too painful to continually focus our attention on so we decided to work on other areas in our lives while we waited. I have returned to school to complete my degree and will be graduating in May and we have been working on projects around the house to prepare for Jadyn's arrival. This past year has also been a time of healing as my dad passed away in June and it took us all by surprise. We miss him terribly and are saddened that he will not have the opportunity to meet Jadyn. However, we believe he will certainly know who our little one is, possibly even before we do.

We are excited that my mom will now be traveling to China with us; she is very excited to be there when we meet our daughter and her granddaughter for the first time. She has been very excited about our adoption from the start and is looking forward to taking in some of the culture from her granddaughter's homeland.

The most recent referrals went through February 28, 2006 which leaves 35 LID's until they reach our date of April 4, 2006. This could take as little as 6 months or as many as 12 more months to get through depending upon how many days are referred each month. Hopefully, there will be one more batch prior to CCAA breaking for the Chinese New Year Holiday and that will help to see how the upcoming months will go. March 2006 is a very large month; however, there has apparently been some attrition due to the extended wait times, as well as, people switching to special needs adoptions. None of this necessarily means any speed up in referrals; only the coming months will tell how many more months we have to wait, but we are hopeful that 2009 will be our year!